This week is shaping up to be critical for the broader crypto market, marked by a prevailing sense of caution as prices consolidate ahead of their next direction.
According to market analysis firm Bull Theory, the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on the horizon, and its outcome will largely hinge on the economic data released this week.
Stability Or Further Pressure For Crypto?
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has two primary mandates: to maintain inflation around 2% and to support employment levels. Currently, the landscape appears challenging, with rising unemployment juxtaposed against persistent inflation.
On September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the previous year’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). This annual revision often reveals downward adjustments, indicating weaker job growth than initially reported.
For instance, last August, the revision was significantly lower than expected, with a downward adjustment of 818,000 jobs—the second worst in US history.
This prompted the Fed to implement a more aggressive 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points. If this repeats, it could raise the likelihood of another substantial cut, which would be viewed positively for liquidity and, by extension, the crypto market.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) report, scheduled for September 10, will provide insights into inflation at the business level. A PPI reading that meets or falls below expectations is likely to boost market sentiment, while a higher-than-expected figure could dampen it.
Last month, the PPI was unexpectedly high, coinciding with Bitcoin’s (BTC) peak near $124,000 before it began to cool. A softer PPI this time could grant the Fed more leeway to implement cuts, alleviating pressure on cryptocurrencies.
Three Scenarios For Fed’s Upcoming Rate Cut Decision
Following that, on September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation gauge, will be released. If CPI readings come in hotter than anticipated, it complicates the Fed’s decision-making process. For the crypto market, a CPI result at or below expectations would be the most favorable outcome.
Also on September 11, initial jobless claims will be reported, indicating how many individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week. A higher-than-expected figure would signal weakness in the job market, thereby increasing pressure on the Fed to act.
As all eyes turn to the FOMC meeting, the data collected this week will be instrumental in determining whether the Fed opts for a 25 basis point or a more aggressive 50 basis point cut.
There are three potential scenarios that could unfold. The first, a larger cut of 50 basis points, is likely if the NFP is sharply revised downwards, CPI and PPI data are soft, and jobless claims are high.
This scenario, which indicates a rapidly weakening economy, could provide robust liquidity support for the market. However, the Bull Theory estimates this outcome has a 20%-25% probability.
The second scenario, a standard cut of 25 basis points, appears more probable, with a 70%-74% chance. This would occur if NFP revisions are moderately weaker, CPI is slightly elevated, and jobless claims remain steady. While this would still be positive for crypto, it may not yield the same liquidity burst as a 50 basis point cut.
Lastly, a scenario where the Fed pauses or delays changes is also possible. The firm asserts that if NFP data holds steady, CPI readings are hotter than expected, and jobless claims decrease, the Fed might take a more cautious approach, potentially leading to short-term pressures and further consolidation for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com