Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.876 with a daily volume of $1.28 billion, but sellers remain in control after a sharp 7% decline over two days. On-chain data from Santiment shows the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric spiking to its highest level since July, signaling that many investors are cashing out profits.
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This wave of profit-taking, while not a sign of structural weakness, has capped ADA’s recovery attempts. Analysts emphasize that defending the $0.87–$0.85 support range will be crucial to maintaining ADA’s broader bullish outlook.
ADA's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: ADAUSD on Tradingview
Technical Outlook: Will ADA Break or Hold?
From a technical perspective, Cardano (ADA) is struggling beneath the 50-EMA at $0.8819, with rejection near $0.923 forming a bearish engulfing candle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44, suggesting sellers still have room to push lower.
If ADA loses support at $0.8528, the next downside levels are $0.8264 and $0.8033. However, reclaiming $0.8843 would be the first sign of strength, opening targets at $0.9018 and $0.9234.
Traders are split: aggressive bears may short below $0.8528, while conservative bulls wait for a breakout above $0.90 to confirm momentum.
Adoption News Offers Bullish Counterweight
Despite short-term weakness, ADA’s fundamentals remain strong. Openbank, Europe’s largest digital bank under Santander, recently integrated Cardano for 2 million customers. This development has boosted the institutional adoption narrative, potentially providing a longer-term bullish catalyst.
Caution dominates in the near term. On-chain data shows a $6.7 million net outflow from exchanges on September 17, reflecting investor hesitation. Analysts warn that unless inflows pick up, ADA may continue trading sideways or drift lower before staging its next rally.
Cardano Bulls Eye $1, But Risks Remain
For now, $0.87–$0.85 remains ADA’s battleground. A decisive break above $0.90 could reignite bullish momentum and put ADA back on track toward the psychological $1 level. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.85 risks exposing deeper support zones at $0.82 and $0.78.
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Whether Cardano’s next move is upward or downward may depend on how traders react to both technical signals and growing adoption headlines in the weeks ahead.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview