Bitcoin price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.
Summary
- BTC was trading near $74,700 in Asian morning hours Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day, with the 10-day global equity rally pausing ahead of the April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry.
- The 7-day moving average funding rate dropped to approximately -0.005% per Glassnode data, last seen during the FTX crash bottom in late 2022, with every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes — March 2020, mid-2021, August 2024 — aligning with local price lows.
- On-chain data shows many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost basis, meaning a squeeze-driven rally could face material sell pressure from holders who acquired BTC in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.
BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asia trading Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of next week’s Iran ceasefire deadline. The asset has climbed from the mid-$60,000s through March and April despite persistently negative funding, meaning shorts have been paying longs for weeks while price continued to grind higher.
Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short holders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When rates go negative, shorts pay longs — a condition that only develops when speculative positioning is tilted heavily against price. The 7-day moving average rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%, per Glassnode data, a reading last seen at the FTX crash bottom in late 2022.
“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Reis-Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.” He targets $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base unwinds, citing buy pressure from large corporate accumulators as the force most likely to trigger forced liquidations across the short base.
Every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes has aligned with a local price floor. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025 all featured deeply negative funding that resolved with sharp recoveries. For traders tracking the ceasefire hopes around the April 22 deadline as a timing catalyst, this historical pattern reinforces a bullish view on the near-term setup.
What Could Prevent a Squeeze Rally
On-chain data introduces a structural counterpoint. Many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their acquisition cost, meaning any squeeze-driven rally that approaches their cost basis could generate significant sell pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025’s peak accumulation period. This is sometimes called the “wall of worried holders” — participants who will not be forced to sell but will sell when they can.
A rally to $125,000 would require absorbing that supply sequentially, moving through each cost-basis cluster without capitulating. The oversold signals visible in on-chain and technical data support the bullish case structurally, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates a clean short-squeeze-to-new-high scenario without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.
The Catalyst Calendar
Three events over the next two weeks will resolve the current setup. The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry is the first: a credible extension removes the geopolitical tail risk that has capped risk-asset rallies since February, while a breakdown would likely push BTC toward the $68,000 structural support floor. The FOMC meets April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chair Powell would reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A confirmed CLARITY Act committee date in early May would add a third potential trigger specific to the digital asset market.