Bitcoin trades about 27% below its $125k high, yet 67% of supply remains in profit above the key 50% band, signaling only moderate bearish pressure so far.
Summary
- Bitcoin has corrected roughly 27–35% from its October all-time high near $125k, but two-thirds of supply still sits in profit versus acquisition price.
- The supply-in-profit metric, tracked by Adler AM, stays above the 50% “capitulation” line, echoing early-2022 correction conditions rather than a full market top or deep bear.
- Short-term moving averages and a recovering drawdown suggest a local base may be forming, though a drop in profitable supply below 50% could quickly deepen downside risk.
Bitcoin has declined 27% from its all-time high of $125,000 to approximately $90,000, yet 67% of the cryptocurrency’s supply remains in profit, according to market analysis from Adler AM.
The metric, which tracks the share of Bitcoin (BTC) supply currently trading above its acquisition price, remains above the critical 50% threshold. During the 2023 market bottom, the indicator fell to 46%, according to the analysis. Current values resemble conditions observed at the beginning of a prolonged correction period in 2022.
Market analysts note that as long as the metric stays above 50%, the market structure appears only moderately bearish. A break below this level could indicate elevated risk and potentially intensify correction pressure, according to the report.
Bitcoin down from all-time-high
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $125,000 in early October before entering a correction phase that produced a peak drawdown of 35%. The drawdown has since recovered to 27.6%, with the one-week simple moving average beginning to turn upward, the analysis stated.
The current 67% profit level stands below the 90%-plus levels typically associated with market tops, while remaining well above the sub-50% capitulation zone, according to the report. The reduction in drawdown from the 35% peak indicates a recovery process and suggests the formation of a short-term base.
Price action has shown stabilization following a November correction, with short-term moving averages beginning to turn upward. The supply-in-profit metric’s position above the 50% threshold indicates the market is balancing between selling pressure and attempts to establish a sustainable local bottom, according to the analysis.
Bitcoin trading data was provided by market analytics firm Adler AM.