Data-Driven Analysis Pinpoints This Cycle’s Bottom Prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP

A recent data-driven market exposition pinpoints this cycle’s bottom prices for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, using historical on-chain context.

The ongoing market-wide downturn has continued to pressure crypto assets, wiping out billions of dollars in value and leading to massive losses across the cryptocurrency sector. 

Amid this environment, prominent market analyst Ali Martinez has shared what he considers the potential bear-market bottom levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, leveraging reliable historical data from multiple metrics.

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands

First, Martinez believes Bitcoin is getting closer to a market bottom based on data from the MVRV Pricing Bands. To him, the final capitulation zone lines up with the 0.8 MVRV Band, which currently sits around $43,200.

He noted that some of Bitcoin’s best risk-reward opportunities have appeared whenever the asset traded within the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands. 

This pattern has repeatedly helped identify major bottoms in past market cycles. Specifically, from January to August 2015, Bitcoin fell to a range between $166 and $213 while trading within this MVRV zone. This period ultimately marked the bottom of the cycle.

This setup appeared again in December 2018 when Bitcoin dropped to between $3,125 and $3,792. The asset entered the same MVRV range and eventually formed the cycle low. Also, a similar event occurred in November 2022 when Bitcoin declined to $15,500.

Currently, the 1.0 MVRV Band stands at $53,900, while the 0.8 MVRV Band is at $43,130. With Bitcoin trading at $63,750, the asset would need to fall between 15% and 32% to reach the projected bottom range.

Ethereum Delta Price Model

For Ethereum, Martinez highlighted the Delta Price model, an indicator that compares investor cost basis with miner production costs. According to him, this metric has consistently identified major accumulation zones and long-term market bottoms.

Notably, this model has successfully pinpointed the cycle lows on two previous occasions. In December 2018, Ethereum dropped to $80.9 and tested the Delta Price level before finding a bottom. The same thing happened in June 2022 when ETH fell to $880 and again reached the indicator before completing the cycle low.

At present, the Delta Price model stands at about $700. Martinez sees this level as Ethereum’s ultimate value zone and a possible floor if selling pressure continues across the broader market.

Ethereum currently trades at $1,677. Based on the Delta Price model, the asset would need to decline by about 58% from its current price to revisit the projected support area around $700.

XRP Rising Trendline

Martinez also discussed XRP’s long-term chart structure. He mentioned a major rising trendline on the monthly chart that has aligned with every major cycle bottom for nearly a decade. He believes this trendline remains one of the most important support levels for XRP.

Importantly, past price action appears to support this. In March 2020, XRP dropped to $0.11 and tested the trendline before forming the bear-market bottom. Years later, XRP again reached a major low when it fell to $0.38 in July 2024. That decline marked the floor for the period before the asset later recovered.

Martinez suggests that another test of this long-term support could create the next major accumulation opportunity. Based on the trendline’s current position, he identified a possible bottom range between $0.70 and $0.90.

XRP currently trades at $1.14. To reach this projected support zone, the asset would need to fall between 21% and 38.5% from its current level.