TLDR:
- XRP price is testing the monthly trend ribbon that has historically defined major bull and bear cycles
- Past losses of the trend ribbon in 2018 and 2022 led to extended declines exceeding 50 percent
- TD Sequential has printed a macro buy signal as the XRP price stabilizes near the $1.85 range
- Volume data shows heavy liquidity between $1.80 and $1.90, signaling market balance and compression
According to the analysis shared by STEPH IS CRYPTO, the XRP price is losing the monthly trend. In the past, both 2018 and 2022 breakdowns below this ribbon preceded declines of roughly 65 percent and 54 percent.
These moves were not brief pullbacks but sustained bearish phases driven by negative momentum. The current structure differs from those of prior cycles.
XRP price remains above the ribbon, and the ribbon itself is still sloping upward. This positioning suggests trend support remains intact, even as price trades close to the boundary.
Monthly Trend Ribbon Defines Macro Structure
When price holds above it, bullish regimes have historically persisted. In the current cycle, XRP price broke above earlier consolidation and maintained support above the ribbon.
The slope turned decisively positive, reflecting stronger alignment than previous attempts. This contrasts with earlier cycles where price sliced through the ribbon with little resistance.
A dotted projection shared in the analysis suggests potential continuation into 2025. Still, the same historical behavior warns that volatility accelerates when the ribbon rolls over.
The focus remains on confirmation rather than projection, with price behavior around the ribbon carrying the most weight.
TD Sequential and Liquidity Point to Compression
Short-term signals present a different but complementary picture. TD Sequential has flashed a macro buy signal on XRP.
This signal appeared after the price consolidated following a strong expansion toward the $2.60 region. XRP price now clusters near $1.85, forming an equilibrium zone.
Candle bodies have narrowed, and wicks have grown longer. This reflects reduced follow-through from both buyers and sellers rather than directional weakness.
Liquidity analysis reinforces this balance. Volume profiles show a dense transaction node between $1.80 and $1.90, acting as a magnet for price.
Above this area, liquidity thins until the $2.05 to $2.20 range, suggesting faster movement if acceptance occurs. Below, demand thickens near $1.70 to $1.75, providing structural support.